BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Rock Wren in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+46%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.07
20260.030.000.07
20270.030.000.07
20280.030.000.07
20290.030.000.07

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Rock Wren in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ClevelandMONTANA42023
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA41997
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA31991
GlentanaMONTANA22023
GlasgowMONTANA11996
RedstoneMONTANA12024
Great FallsMONTANA12012
ChinookMONTANA12024
LambertMONTANA12022
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA11985
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.