BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Rock Wren In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Rock Wren in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-33%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Rock Wren In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 0.89 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 0.89 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.720.001.9
20270.720.001.9
20280.710.001.9
20290.710.001.9
20300.700.001.9

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Rock Wren in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft. DavisTEXAS102025
QueenNEW-MEXICO52021
Black GapTEXAS42025
ShafterTEXAS41985
Casa PiedraTEXAS42022
PinonNEW-MEXICO32024
Bear MtnTEXAS32025
ToyahvaleTEXAS32025
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO21977
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO22025
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22024
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO22017
EngleNEW-MEXICO21981
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO22022
Hot SpringsTEXAS22025
ValentineTEXAS21987
CastolonTEXAS22025
GageNEW-MEXICO12024
DemingNEW-MEXICO11968
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12017
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12015
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO12017
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12008
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12022
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.