BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Rock Wren In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Rock Wren in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Rock Wren in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Rock Wren in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.720.001.9
20260.710.001.9
20270.710.001.9
20280.700.001.9
20290.690.001.9

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Rock Wren in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO72024
Devils R CynTEXAS72008
Bear MtnTEXAS62024
QueenNEW-MEXICO52021
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO42024
ShafterTEXAS41985
Casa PiedraTEXAS42022
Ft. DavisTEXAS42023
PinonNEW-MEXICO32024
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO21977
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO22017
EngleNEW-MEXICO21981
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO22022
Hot SpringsTEXAS22023
ValentineTEXAS21987
RoswellNEW-MEXICO11995
GageNEW-MEXICO12024
DemingNEW-MEXICO11968
JornadaNEW-MEXICO12017
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12015
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO12017
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12008
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12022
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.