BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Analysis

CathartidaeBirds of preyCathartes aura

Turkey Vulture has surged: up 199% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+199%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3,685RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Turkey Vulture

A wide-ranging scavenger that rocks on uplifted wings as it soars, the Turkey Vulture finds carrion partly by its rare, well-developed sense of smell.

Size
24.5–32 in long, about 3.1 lb (62–81 cm, 1.4 kg)
Habitat
Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
Diet
Carrion of all kinds, located by sight and smell.
Range
Recorded on 3,685 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 48 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Cathartidae · Birds of prey
Conservation
Least Concern

Notable Turkey Vulture TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in surveyed states: up 199% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 4.9–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 4.9–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.34.65.9
20275.34.76.0
20285.44.76.0
20295.54.86.1
20305.54.96.2

Where the Turkey Vulture Is Detected

BBS routes recording Turkey Vulture, sized by most recent count.

Turkey Vulture Population Trend by State

Turkey Vulture population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+455%1968105
Arizona+61%197084
Arkansas-24%196954
California+101%1970232
Colorado+434%1971119
Connecticut+361%197319
Delaware+482%196817
Florida+9%1968125
Georgia+594%1968111
Idaho+127%197545
Illinois55×1972103
Indiana16×196866
Iowa14×196935
Kansas+823%196966
Kentucky+316%196861
Louisiana+201%196994
Maine+691%198337
Maryland+321%196874
Massachusetts+614%197326
Michigan14×196896
Minnesota+350%197577
Mississippi+293%196870
Missouri+707%196994
Montana+83%197872
Nebraska51×197466
Nevada+532%197043
New Hampshire+277%198423
New Jersey+86%196840
New Mexico+41%197081
New York17×1968108
North Carolina+772%1968103
North Dakota+238%198720
Ohio+733%196888
Oklahoma+208%196971
Oregon+87%1970125
Pennsylvania+348%1968135
Rhode Island+255%19923
South Carolina+534%196848
South Dakota+58%197448
Tennessee+340%196851
Texas+2%1969244
Utah+417%197088
Vermont+976%198024
Virginia+272%196887
Washington+27%197064
West Virginia+349%196862
Wisconsin75×196994
Wyoming+239%197887

Turkey Vulture Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Turkey Vulture population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-2%1970112
Great Basin+361%1970189
Northern Rockies+273%1973149
Prairie Potholes+678%199168
Boreal Hardwood Transition+679%1969109
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+787%196882
Atlantic Northern Forest15×1973103
Sierra Nevada+3%197232
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+262%1970198
Badlands and Prairies+185%1974102
Shortgrass Prairie+99%1969106
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+229%1969125
Edwards Plateau-4%196921
Oaks and Prairies+45%196973
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie21×1968272
Prairie Hardwood Transition20×1968154
Central Hardwoods+302%1968166
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+38%1969110
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+985%196960
Southeastern Coastal Plain+532%1968337
Appalachian Mountains+342%1968385
Piedmont+496%1968166
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+244%1968143
Peninsular Florida-33%196880
Coastal California+201%1970105
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+209%197075
Sierra Madre Occidental-28%197037
Chihuahuan Desert-45%196956
Tamaulipan Brushlands-29%196928
Gulf Coastal Prairie+275%196942

Turkey Vulture Conservation Status

Least Concern

The IUCN Red List rates this species as Least Concern. Our route-weighted index shows it up about 198% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.