BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 985% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+985%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 985% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Turkey Vulture In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 78% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.0–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+78%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 78% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 2.0–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.91.84.1
20273.01.94.1
20283.01.94.2
20293.12.04.2
20303.22.04.3

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShawLOUISIANA222024
LaroseLOUISIANA121990
RamahLOUISIANA82024
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA82025
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA82025
KraemerLOUISIANA72025
ConcordLOUISIANA72019
GonzalesLOUISIANA62019
FrogmoreLOUISIANA62025
MaynardARKANSAS52024
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY52025
HughesARKANSAS42021
SaffellARKANSAS42019
EnglandARKANSAS42025
MayflowerLOUISIANA42025
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI42025
BerwickLOUISIANA32018
DelhiLOUISIANA32021
DundeeMISSISSIPPI32022
TippoMISSISSIPPI32024
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE32025
Augusta 2ARKANSAS22016
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS22024
BardwellKENTUCKY22003
CarlisleLOUISIANA21988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.