BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

13×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Turkey Vulture In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.2 (95% range 2.1–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.2 (95% range 2.1–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.94.1
20263.01.94.1
20273.12.04.2
20283.12.04.2
20293.22.14.3

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShawLOUISIANA222024
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE162022
LaroseLOUISIANA121990
River RoadLOUISIANA122024
BelairLOUISIANA102024
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY82024
RamahLOUISIANA82024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA72024
ConcordLOUISIANA72019
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA72021
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI72024
GonzalesLOUISIANA62019
MaynardARKANSAS52024
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA52024
HughesARKANSAS42021
SaffellARKANSAS42019
South BendARKANSAS32023
KraemerLOUISIANA32024
BerwickLOUISIANA32018
DelhiLOUISIANA32021
DundeeMISSISSIPPI32022
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI32024
TippoMISSISSIPPI32024
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI32024
EnglandARKANSAS22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.