BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Great Basin has surged: up 361% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+361%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
189Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Great Basin: up 361% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Turkey Vulture In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Great Basin is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Great Basin is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.11.32.9
20272.11.32.9
20282.11.32.9
20292.11.33.0
20302.21.43.0

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish LakeOREGON642025
Iron GateCALIFORNIA492019
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA462024
NixonNEVADA402025
PromontoryUTAH322025
Magic MtnIDAHO272024
MacdoelCALIFORNIA232019
Modoc Point 2OREGON202025
RavendaleCALIFORNIA192025
IngallsCALIFORNIA162025
RimrockWASHINGTON152024
Warner VallyOREGON132023
WillisNEVADA122025
AlmoIDAHO112025
HikoNEVADA112025
Trout CreekOREGON112025
SistersOREGON102013
Silver CityIDAHO92025
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA82017
BatesIDAHO82019
Dobbin CreekNEVADA82018
Ruby ValleyNEVADA82001
Mill CityNEVADA82017
Modoc PointOREGON82018
DorrisCALIFORNIA72019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.