BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+342%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
385Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.5 (95% range 3.8–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.5 (95% range 3.8–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.33.55.1
20274.33.65.1
20284.43.65.2
20294.53.75.3
20304.53.85.3

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
VirginiaPENNSYLVANIA522024
StonecreekOHIO482025
FinzelMARYLAND452025
HarbuckTENNESSEE282001
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA282025
DrydenNEW-YORK242025
DresdenOHIO242025
N Pine GrovePENNSYLVANIA242025
OteenNORTH-CAROLINA222024
Bald EaglePENNSYLVANIA222025
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA212017
RamseyPENNSYLVANIA192025
BerwickPENNSYLVANIA192025
NewbernVIRGINIA191979
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA182025
Peru MillsPENNSYLVANIA182025
WolfsvilleMARYLAND172025
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA172025
Natural BridVIRGINIA172025
StevensonALABAMA152024
WilliamsportMARYLAND152025
Baxter RidgeOHIO152025
OmegaOHIO152024
CoshoctonOHIO151991
YoungtownALABAMA142025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.