BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 330% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+330%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
384Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 330% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.4 (95% range 3.7–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.4 (95% range 3.7–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.23.45.0
20264.23.55.0
20274.33.55.1
20284.43.65.2
20294.43.75.2

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StonecreekOHIO702024
VirginiaPENNSYLVANIA522024
SpencerWEST-VIRGINIA362023
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA352024
CovingtonVIRGINIA352024
N Pine GrovePENNSYLVANIA312024
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA302024
HarbuckTENNESSEE282001
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA232024
OteenNORTH-CAROLINA222024
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA212017
WyalusingPENNSYLVANIA212024
EdinburgVIRGINIA192024
NewbernVIRGINIA191979
KymulgaALABAMA182024
SaltvilleVIRGINIA172024
DrydenVIRGINIA172024
Pt PleasantWEST-VIRGINIA172023
DresdenOHIO162024
ClendeninWEST-VIRGINIA162024
StevensonALABAMA152024
OmegaOHIO152024
CoshoctonOHIO151991
Star TanneryVIRGINIA152024
Sugar GroveWEST-VIRGINIA152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.