BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in North Dakota has surged: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+149%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in North Dakota: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in North Dakota is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.04–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±188.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±188.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in North Dakota is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.04–0.60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±188.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.010.57
20260.300.020.58
20270.310.030.58
20280.310.040.59
20290.320.040.60

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stanley620241991
Regan220221991
Golva220222021
Bentley220142013
Glen Ullin220222002
Braddock220212002
Abercrombie 2220172017
Forman120212021
Carson120211997
Emerado120172013
Cooperstown120152009
Wimbledon120162016
Horsehead Lk120212021
Denbigh120172009
Zap120241994
Roosevelt Pk120181982
Parshall120112011
Douglas Crk120181987
Turtle Mtns120072005
Solen120232007

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.