BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Missouri has surged: up 684% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+684%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Missouri: up 684% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Missouri is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.1–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Missouri is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.1–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202510.07.313
2026107.513
2027107.713
2028117.913
2029118.113

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Point9820241994
Frankford8020241987
Syracuse4420241969
Lucerne4020212018
Cassville3820241967
Sedalia3120241991
Miller3120242014
Woodlandville2720242013
Mcfall2620241994
Trenton2520241969
Cascade2320241973
Queen City2320222017
Bolckow2219901971
Rueter 22120242023
Akers1920241967
Laclede1920241994
Ohio1820241972
Eugene1820242014
Graydon1720241967
West Plains1720242014
Rockingham1520241971
Centertown1420241973
Palace1420242013
Hayden1320241975
Sni Mills1319901969

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.