BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Missouri

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Missouri has surged: up 707% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+707%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Missouri: up 707% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Missouri is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.4–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Missouri is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.4–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026107.613
2027107.813
2028118.013
2029118.214
2030118.414

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cassville7220251967
New Point5820251994
Frankford5320251987
New Hampton5320252014
Syracuse4420241969
Laclede4420251994
Rueter 22520252023
Sedalia2420251991
Rockingham2320251971
Lucerne2320252018
Queen City2320222017
Bolckow2219901971
Kingsville2120251992
Trenton2020251969
West Plains2020252014
Rensselaer1820251972
Crane1820251994
Graniteville1820251985
Cascade1720251973
Handley1720251969
Osage Beach1720251997
Ohio1520251972
Akers1420251967
Filley1420251976
Millwood1420252001

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.