BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Arizona has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+58%Since 1970
83Routes In State
56Years

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in Arizona

long arc increasecomputed index

Turkey Vulture has risen sharply in Arizona: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.6 (95% range 3.6–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029
6.6Projected 2029 index
3.6–9.695% range
±14%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20256.43.49.4
20266.43.49.4
20276.53.59.5
20286.53.59.5
20296.63.69.6

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Arizona.
Pomerene6020241968
Bates Well5120231995
Ajo 22820222009
Organ Pipe2820231990
Hope 22820192014
Cutter 22420182015
Cabeza Priet2220241993
Cutter2020141992
Casa Grande1820221990
Peach Spring1720241992
Wikieup1620241992
Ajo1520081969
Lukeville1519811975
Quartzsite1420231974
Cibola Lake1420241993
Patagonia1220241968
Carr Mtn1220241985
Amado1120231993
Sunizona 21120242001
Portal920241976
Wickenburg820232017
Flagstaff720222019
Vicksburg719891968
San Simon720241971
Peña Blanca720241975

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.