BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Arizona

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Arizona has risen sharply: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+61%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has risen sharply in Arizona: up 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.7 (95% range 3.7–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–9.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.7 (95% range 3.7–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.43.59.4
20276.53.59.5
20286.53.69.5
20296.63.69.6
20306.73.79.6

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pomerene9220251968
Bates Well5120231995
Carr Mtn3120251985
Ajo 22820222009
Organ Pipe2820231990
Hope 22820192014
Cutter 22420182015
Patagonia2120251968
Cutter2020141992
Casa Grande1820221990
Wikieup1620241992
Ajo1520081969
Lukeville1519811975
Cibola Lake1420241993
Alamo Res.1320251992
Cabeza Priet1320251993
Clay Spring1320251990
Redington1120251993
Forest Lakes820252001
Wickenburg820232017
Flagstaff720222019
Vicksburg719891968
San Simon720241971
Sunizona719971968
Peach Spring720251992

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.