BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Washington has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in Washington. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Washington is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.25–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Washington is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.25–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.820.211.4
20260.830.221.4
20270.850.231.5
20280.860.241.5
20290.870.251.5

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Raymond2220211993
Rimrock1520241969
Packwood1420241978
South Elma1220241989
Pe Ell1220211995
Yakima1120211993
Cougar620231975
Mt St Helens620242014
Ewan 2520242023
Bunker Hill520241968
Raymond 2520242022
Cusick420241998
Everett420241997
Leavenworth420242006
Twisp320241995
Montesand320231987
Nighthawk320242007
Cedar Falls319961994
Blewett Pass320191995
Harwood319971993
Carnation320231996
Ozette220031979
Chewelah220131991
Kamilche220171986
Selah220232015

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.