BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Michigan

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Michigan has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

14×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Michigan: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.1 (95% range 1.9–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.1 (95% range 1.9–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.91.74.0
20272.91.84.0
20283.01.84.1
20293.01.94.1
20303.11.94.2

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Owendale7920171987
Skegemog Pt4220251990
Hamburg 21820242004
Deckerville1620241984
Holt1520251981
Pleasant Valley 21420252004
Bell Oak 21220252016
Lapeer1220252000
Nashville820251968
Skeels820151966
Lake City720151974
Mottville720251968
Prattville720211969
Richmond620242000
Ontonagon520192004
Crystal Fls520222009
Scottville520251968
Beaver Lake520112011
Hubbard Lake519901989
Walloon Lake 2520242010
Herron520132011
Cunard420211976
Bravo420221978
St Charles420191991
Waldenburg420171984

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.