BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Michigan has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

13×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Michigan: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Michigan is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.9–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Michigan is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.9–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.73.9
20262.81.74.0
20272.91.84.0
20282.91.84.1
20293.01.94.1

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Owendale7920171987
Chippewa Lk.4320241993
Lapeer3020242000
Hamburg 21820242004
Deckerville1620241984
Pleasant Valley 21320242004
Ola1120241979
Holt1120241981
Mottville920241968
Hungerford920231991
Skeels820151966
Isabella 2820212014
Lake City720151974
Prattville720211969
Pickford620241993
Richmond620242000
Ontonagon520192004
Crystal Fls520222009
Skegemog Pt520241990
Beaver Lake520112011
Hubbard Lake519901989
Walloon Lake 2520242010
Herron520132011
Cunard420211976
Scottville420241968

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.