BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Nebraska has surged: up 57× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

57×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Nebraska: up 57× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Nebraska is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.2–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Nebraska is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.2–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.21.94.6
20263.31.94.6
20273.42.04.7
20283.42.14.8
20293.52.24.8

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kearney3920212008
Arthur1820242007
Brady1320241995
Humboldt1320242018
Julian1120241978
Richland620221993
Sutherland620242024
Murdock620242019
Irvington520241991
Johnstown520241982
Hay Springs520242018
Nenzel520242019
Sargent520212021
Johnson420241977
Petersburg420222004
Kennedy420241998
Crookston420242019
Liberty320031976
Bartley320241974
Almeria320211990
Eagle Creek320182003
Swan Lake320222004
Piester Lake320231994
Kimball320221975
Murray Lake320232005

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.