BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Louisiana has surged: up 181% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+181%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Louisiana: up 180% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Louisiana is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 4.3–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–7.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Louisiana is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 4.3–7.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.63.97.4
20265.74.07.4
20275.84.17.5
20285.94.27.6
20296.04.37.7

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glencoe2720181997
Shaw2220241972
Ivan 21820162014
De Ridder1620191967
Many1619921989
Fishville 21620242018
Hackberry 21520242018
Derry1419821967
Sabine Nwr 21320172009
Longstreet1220241967
Larose1219901988
River Road1220241990
Vinton 21220242011
Hackberry1120161967
Natchitoches1119911987
Hargis1120112005
Junior1019911987
Clay1020241968
Belair1020241992
Burr Ferry1020241987
Womack920241999
Ivan920131998
Goodwill920242004
Plettenberg820221968
Ramah820241993

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.