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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Louisiana has surged: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+201%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Louisiana: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Louisiana is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 4.3–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Louisiana is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 5.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.0 (95% range 4.3–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.74.07.4
20275.84.17.5
20285.94.27.6
20296.04.37.7
20306.04.37.8

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glencoe2720181997
Hackberry 22320252018
Shaw2220241972
De Ridder1620191967
Many1619921989
Burr Ferry1620251987
Derry 21520251993
Derry1419821967
Trout1420251992
Clay1320251968
Sabine Nwr 21320172009
Larose1219901988
Hackberry1120161967
Natchitoches1119911987
Natchez1120251992
Hargis1120112005
Junior1019911987
Norwood920252004
Ivan920131998
Plettenberg820221968
Ramah820241993
Fishville 2820252018
Tensas Nwr820251992
Atchafalaya820251989
Flat Creek720252000

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.