BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Connecticut has surged: up 361% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+361%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Connecticut: up 361% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Connecticut is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.84–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Connecticut is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.84–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.742.3
20271.50.762.3
20281.60.792.3
20291.60.812.3
20301.60.842.4

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buckingham1320221989
Danbury620231972
Mid Haddam520251977
Uncasville420251985
Sherman420191975
Long Hill420172005
Woodstock220071971
Willimantic220181996
Mystic120231973
E Hartland119891973
Westbrook120251978
No Woodbury120111987
Greenwich119751975
Warren120101979
Southington120211982
New Hartford120231997
Woodstock 2120242016
Warren 2120242024
Granby120252010

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.