BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Arkansas has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Arkansas is projected to rise about 98% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.0–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+98%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±123.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Arkansas is projected to rise about 98% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.0–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.21.86.6
20264.31.96.6
20274.31.96.7
20284.32.06.7
20294.42.06.8

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell5320182010
Russell3320212010
Centerton1820242010
Havana1720212010
Yellville1620222010
Massard720221968
Zion720241967
Marshall720212011
Old Milo620241967
Avoca620241967
Stark520241967
Coal Hill520231967
Maynard520241997
Lockesburg520192010
Springhill520222010
Princeton 2520222022
Stamps420191967
Hughes420212003
Hollywood420191967
Saffell420191967
Ravenden Springs420142010
Magazine Mtn420211993
South Bend320231968
Rupert320211967
Dry Fork 2320242024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.