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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Oklahoma has surged: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+208%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Oklahoma: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.8–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.8–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 9.8–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026139.017
2027139.217
2028139.418
2029149.618
2030149.818

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns11219941994
Cooperton7120251992
Randlett5820251970
Heyburn5820251994
Goodwater5520211992
Welch4820251981
Jet4520241993
Mill Creek4320251967
Cashion4320241992
Phillips3020251968
Beggs2620231970
Tegarden2620161967
Wichita Mts West2520252004
Ardmore2420251967
Hollis2420251995
Sickles2320211997
Elgin2220161994
Ft Sill West2219941994
Cookietown2120061968
Canadian2020171967
Verden1620171967
Clear Lake1620251995
Keetonville1420221993
Big Cedar1220191967
Matoy1220251992

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.