BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Texas

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Texas has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
244Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in Texas. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Texas is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 13–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Texas is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 13–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171321
2027171321
2028171321
2029171321
2030171321

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcfaddin8720162006
Ozona5820221975
Indian Mtn5220251976
Zapata4719871967
Massey Lake4720251970
Mertzon 24720252022
Indianola4520241967
Arenosa Crk4520251968
Comstock4420251967
Encinal4320101969
Valentine4319871969
Selden4220251968
Whit Mtn.4220191994
Goliad Prairie4220162004
Henrietta4120221968
Rockspring4020251994
Ft. Stockton3820252004
Devils R Cyn3720251994
Duran3619991995
Millett 23520242013
Cayuga3420252001
Georgetown3319851967
Harper3320251969
Thornton 23220101985
Encinal 23220252011

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.