BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Texas has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+12%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
243Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in Texas. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Texas is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 13–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Texas is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 13–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025171321
2026171321
2027171321
2028171321
2029171321

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcfaddin8720162006
Longfellow7720241968
Ozona5820221975
Oyster Lake5820241995
Pear Valley5620241969
Pidcoke 25020242018
Zapata4719871967
Indianola4520241967
Encinal4320101969
Harper4320241969
Valentine4319871969
Whit Mtn.4220191994
Goliad Prairie4220162004
Henrietta4120221968
Sadler3920241969
Silver3920242002
Winnie3820241967
Duran3619991995
Indian Mtn3520241976
Ft. Davis3520232004
Millett 23520242013
Selden3420241968
Georgetown3319851967
Leakey3320241994
Thornton 23220101985

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.