BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Kentucky has surged: up 293% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+293%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Kentucky: up 293% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Kentucky is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 7.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.4–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Kentucky is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 7.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.26.812
20269.47.012
20279.57.112
20289.67.212
20299.87.412

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Johnsonville2420211966
Dixie2120191982
Lebanon Junction2020242000
Eastview1820241967
Demunbruns1620211966
Iron Bridge1519981967
Kings Mtn1520241966
Canton1420241967
Keysburg1320241971
East Union1120221966
Levee 21020192007
Million 21020242006
Dixon920242005
Pleasurevill920241979
Morganfield920242022
Shiloh820231969
Cedar Grove820241966
Hustonville820241966
Hudson820241966
Porter820241966
Bays Fork820191999
Bardwell 2820242007
Staffordsvil819971997
Sulphur Lick720231966
Apex720242005

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.