BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Kentucky has surged: up 316% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+316%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Kentucky: up 316% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Kentucky is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 7.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Kentucky is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 7.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.36.912
20279.57.112
20289.67.212
20299.77.312
20309.97.512

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Canton2520251967
Johnsonville2420211966
Hudson2220251966
Dixie2120191982
Hustonville2020251966
Demunbruns1620211966
Eastview1620251967
Iron Bridge1519981967
Porter1320251966
Plum1220251966
Apex1120252005
Mcbrayer1120251966
Lovelacevile1020251972
Levee 21020192007
Million 21020242006
Dixon920242005
Sewell Shop820251966
Bays Fork820191999
Staffordsvil819971997
Sulphur Lick720231966
East Union720251966
Mammoth Cave720141995
Cedar Grove620251966
Kehoe 2620242005
Joy620231966

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.