BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in South Carolina has surged: up 534% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+534%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in South Carolina: up 534% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in South Carolina is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 7.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 4.1–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in South Carolina is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 7.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 4.1–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.83.77.8
20275.93.87.9
20286.03.98.0
20296.14.08.1
20306.24.18.2

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coward4020251993
Blacksburg2820122000
Holly Hill2520251973
Nixville2420251998
Dillon2320211995
Dale2020251998
Pinewood1620191999
Red Bluff1320251997
Walterboro1220251970
Salem Xrd1220141982
Greenwood1220251998
Ward1120252017
Bennettsville1120172000
Adams Run1020251988
Campobello820252013
Cauthens Xrd820151983
Rome720251976
Bishopville720251984
Salem720232011
Prosperity620241992
Barton Creek520221970
Joanna520221999
Mount Pisgah520251998
Jamestown420151968
Hardeeville420241967

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.