BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in South Carolina has surged: up 528% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+528%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in South Carolina: up 527% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.9 (95% range 3.9–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.9 (95% range 3.9–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.53.57.5
20265.63.67.6
20275.73.77.7
20285.83.87.8
20295.93.97.9

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Bluff3220241997
Blacksburg2820122000
Dillon2320211995
Walterboro2120171970
Dale1820241998
Pinewood1620191999
Adams Run1520241988
Salem Xrd1220141982
Foreston1120211989
Bennettsville1120172000
Rome920241976
Holly Hill820241973
Coward820241993
Cauthens Xrd820151983
Bishopville720241984
Salem720232011
Green Sea620242019
Prosperity620241992
Barton Creek520221970
Joanna520221999
Jamestown420151968
Hardeeville420241967
Wagener420241967
Greenwood420191998
Olar420181998

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.