BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Tennessee has surged: up 340% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+340%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Tennessee: up 340% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Tennessee is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 8.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 4.7–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–8.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Tennessee is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 8.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 4.7–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.44.38.4
20276.54.48.5
20286.64.58.6
20296.74.68.7
20306.84.78.8

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield3820251966
Humboldt3420251978
Harbuck2820011998
Collinwood2520251966
Wrigley2420221966
Moscow1720251966
Trace Collinwood1720182015
Silver Pt1520241966
Jasper1320251968
Peytonsville1220251967
Climer1220041968
Bradyville1120211967
Pond Creek920251968
Mcfarland919891974
Tullahoma720151968
Signal Mtn620251979
Indian Mound619981972
Belotes Bend620181966
Jefferson Cty620111966
Glen520251966
Oliver Spgs520211966
Mecca520191999
Trenton420231966
Willis Sprng419941994
Tiptonville320251973

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.