BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Tennessee has surged: up 354% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+354%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Tennessee: up 354% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Tennessee is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 4.5–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Tennessee is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 4.5–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.14.18.1
20266.24.28.2
20276.34.38.3
20286.44.48.4
20296.54.58.5

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt4520241978
Mansfield3320241966
Harbuck2820011998
Wrigley2420221966
Peytonsville2420241967
Trace Collinwood1720182015
Pawpaw 21620222013
Silver Pt1520241966
Big Sandy1420241970
Climer1220041968
Bradyville1120211967
Glen920241966
Mcfarland919891974
Whiteville820241966
Tullahoma720151968
Moscow620241966
Indian Mound619981972
Belotes Bend620181966
Jefferson Cty620111966
Pond Creek520241968
Collinwood520241966
Jasper520241968
Oliver Spgs520211966
Mecca520191999
Trenton420231966

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.