BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in West Virginia has surged: up 376% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+376%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in West Virginia: up 376% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in West Virginia is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 3.7–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in West Virginia is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 3.7–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.33.37.2
20265.33.47.3
20275.43.57.3
20285.53.67.4
20295.63.77.5

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Spencer3620231990
Pt Pleasant1720231974
Clendenin1620241996
Sugar Grove1520241972
Moundsville1520241975
Hix1320241971
Arlee1219751967
Slate1220241984
Rockport1220241996
Lost River1120231996
Yawkey820231966
Olcott820241967
Cedarville820191982
Yellow Spg820231972
Washburn720221987
Josephs Mill720241993
Bismark620231984
Green Bank520241980
Rio519941974
Ruthbelle520241975
Valley Head420241974
Bemis420222001
Paradise320231970
Three Forks320242000
Bebee320221975

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.