BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Virginia has surged: up 287% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+287%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Virginia: up 287% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.4 (95% range 6.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.4 (95% range 6.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.05.710
20268.15.810
20278.25.911
20288.36.111
20298.46.211

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covington3520241966
Finchley3220211994
Newsoms3020241967
Rural Retrt3020241982
White Stone2220241967
Brandy Station2120242017
Edinburg1920241968
Newbern1919791968
Brodnax1920241973
Saltville1720241971
Dryden1720241991
Chincoteag W1720241992
Taylorstown1620101969
Gladys1620241994
Star Tannery1520241978
Hall1520231967
Natural Brid1420241974
Wylliesburg1420191976
Covesville1320241968
Moran1320241997
Brandon1320241992
Dismal Swamp1320161992
Stickleyvill1219891975
Blacksburg1220241988
Tryme1120241975

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.