BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Virginia

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Virginia has surged: up 272% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+272%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Virginia: up 272% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Virginia is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 6.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Virginia is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 6.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 6.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.05.710
20278.15.810
20288.25.911
20298.36.011
20308.46.111

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quinby4120251966
Finchley3220211994
Newsoms3020241967
Rural Retrt2820251982
Big Island2020251968
Newbern1919791968
Natural Brid1720251974
Ringgold1720251978
Chincoteag W1720241992
Taylorstown1620101969
Star Tannery1420251978
Fincastle1420251968
Sharps1420251968
Wylliesburg1420191976
Dismal Swamp1320161992
Stickleyvill1219891975
Tryme1120241975
Pungo1120251975
Blacksburg1120251988
Dryden920251991
Nat Tunnel920251981
Churchville820251966
Port Royal820191977
Clinchport819781968
Brodnax820251973

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.