BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Mississippi has surged: up 293% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+293%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Mississippi: up 293% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Mississippi is projected to rise about 129% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 3.1–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+129%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Mississippi is projected to rise about 129% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 3.1–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.82.86.7
20274.92.96.8
20284.93.06.9
20295.03.17.0
20305.13.17.0

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cybur2120191974
Cockrum1820241968
Leaf River1720132008
Lucien1620081974
Duck Hill1420251971
Duffee1320071973
Waynesboro1320101967
De Soto1320192008
Trace Lorman1120192016
Olive Branch 21120222016
Trace South1020182007
Water Valley820182015
Holly Springs820242009
Diberville819871979
Grenada Lake820191997
Vicksburg Np720212016
Oak Ridge Vick620192015
Necaise620221982
Aberdeen520252004
Neely520122001
Weir520252008
Fort Adams520221975
Columbia420181972
Latimer 2420222022
Tallahatchie420252010

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.