BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in South Dakota has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+56%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has risen sharply in South Dakota: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in South Dakota is projected to rise about 131% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.16–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+131%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in South Dakota is projected to rise about 131% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.16–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.690.121.3
20260.700.131.3
20270.710.141.3
20280.720.151.3
20290.730.161.3

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft Thompson1519931990
Badlands1520221982
Hayes1020211994
Roubaix Lk619911970
Marcus620101999
Forbes520232023
Hill City520132002
Rochford420171994
Wind Cave Np320232010
Howard220212011
Indian219941994
French Creek220052005
Promise220092009
Lodgepole220242012
Isabel220111990
Englewood220181997
Lennox120232010
Tripp120242015
White Lake120072007
Geddes120181997
Pioneer120162016
Winner120182006
Rosebud120112011
Rockyford120211971
Volga120192004

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.