BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in South Dakota has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+58%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has risen sharply in South Dakota: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in South Dakota is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.21–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in South Dakota is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.21–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.770.161.4
20270.780.171.4
20280.790.181.4
20290.800.201.4
20300.810.211.4

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft Thompson1519931990
Hayes1020211994
Rockyford920251971
Badlands720251982
Roubaix Lk619911970
Marcus620101999
Forbes520232023
Harding520251999
Hill City520132002
Custer420251978
Lodgepole420252012
Lacreek320252009
Howard220212011
Indian219941994
French Creek220052005
Promise220092009
Cedar Pass220251974
Isabel220111990
Englewood220181997
Rochford220251994
Lennox120232010
Tripp120252015
White Lake120072007
Geddes120251997
Pioneer120162016

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.