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Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Maryland

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Maryland has surged: up 321% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+321%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Maryland: up 321% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Maryland is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 12–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Maryland is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 12–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026141117
2027141217
2028151218
2029151218
2030151218

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harmony7620171966
Earlton5220242014
Finzel4520252000
Piney Neck4220251966
Matthews3920251966
Madonna3220222009
Walnut2520241999
Ijamsville2520251986
Emmitsburg2320251966
Millington2220251967
Indiantown2120141977
Madison1920251966
Vienna1920251966
Cokesbury1920251966
Fruitland1819981969
St. George'S Island1820172015
Wolfsville1720251967
Honga1720251966
Williamsport1520251969
Nottingham1520252005
Beltsville1420091969
Melitota1420251966
Broomes Isl1319961967
Forest Grove1320232011
Mt Nebo1219911969

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.