BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Maryland has surged: up 392% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+392%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Maryland: up 392% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 15 (95% range 12–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 15 (95% range 12–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025141217
2026151217
2027151218
2028151218
2029151218

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harmony7620171966
Madison6320241966
Cokesbury5420241966
Earlton5220242014
Vienna5120241966
Honga4920241966
Millington4420241967
Elkton3720241966
Melitota3620241966
Madonna3220222009
Walnut2520241999
Matthews2220241966
Indiantown2120141977
Fruitland1819981969
St. George'S Island1820172015
Newark1720241966
Beltsville1420091969
Broomes Isl1319961967
Piney Neck1320241966
Forest Grove1320232011
Davidsnville1320241983
Mt Nebo1219911969
Williamsport1220241969
Emmitsburg1220241966
Upper Xrds1220081983

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.