BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Minnesota has surged: up 350% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+350%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Minnesota: up 350% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.68–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.68–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.68–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.571.8
20271.20.601.8
20281.20.621.8
20291.30.651.9
20301.30.681.9

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ash Creek2120251991
Whitewater 21420192014
Courtland1320252012
Badger1320172000
Le Center820252002
Chandler720252023
Chatfield 2720252003
Sherburne Nr620252005
Edwards520232015
Frontenac520231993
Glenwood520182003
Warroad420242015
Lakeville320182012
Minnetonka320242002
Princeton320242011
Blackduck320052005
Nebish320231995
Caledonia 2320242018
Nett Lake320242013
Money Creek220241978
Millville220251967
Arlington220212010
Maynard220152004
Mille Lacs220231994
Glyndon220192019

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.