BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Minnesota has surged: up 316% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+316%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Minnesota: up 315% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Minnesota is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.63–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.63–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Minnesota is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.63–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.531.8
20261.20.561.8
20271.20.581.8
20281.20.611.8
20291.20.631.9

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Millville2020191967
Ash Creek1920241991
Whitewater 21420192014
Badger1320172000
Edwards520232015
Hovland520232008
Beltrami520242016
Frontenac520231993
Glenwood520182003
Chatfield 2520242003
Warroad420242015
Lakeville320182012
Minnetonka320242002
Princeton320242011
Le Center320162002
Blackduck320052005
Nebish320231995
Caledonia 2320242018
Nett Lake320242013
Money Creek220241978
Arlington220212010
Maynard220152004
Mille Lacs220231994
Glyndon220192019
Tenney220162016

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.