BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Montana

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Montana has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+83%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Montana: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Montana is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.10–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Montana is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.10–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.080.48
20270.290.090.48
20280.290.090.49
20290.290.100.49
20300.300.100.50

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Willow Creek 2720251985
Miles City720242015
St Regis620232005
Custer 2520242024
Wolf Point520182016
Jordan420182011
Brandenberg420252000
Elevation Mt320222008
Reed Point320241978
Saco320172015
Chuffey Spring320222021
Hebgen Lake320252021
Bull Mtn.320191997
Redstone220102010
Highwood220222022
Brusett220182009
Boulder220241975
Forsyth220162016
Fort Logan220182018
Red Rock220232019
Swan Lake220192018
Thompson Riv220222004
Lindsay220232023
Maynard Coulee220242024
Coleman Coulee220182018

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.