BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in New Mexico has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in New Mexico is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 2.7–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in New Mexico is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 2.7–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.72.56.8
20264.72.66.9
20274.82.66.9
20284.82.77.0
20294.92.77.0

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Capitan Mtn.4620171993
Hobbs2120241994
Gallo Arroyo1920211996
Ojo Sarco1420241969
Cloudcroft1420241975
Dulce1420242001
Pinon1220241992
Red Rock1120241992
Sanostee1120242022
Sunshine Wll1120221992
La Plata 21120162015
Cebolla920231973
Claunch920001977
Queen920211993
San Antonio819771974
Carrizozo820241968
Lakewood820211980
Mountainair720241992
Bitter Lake720231994
Claunch 2720242001
Correo619821976
Variadero620221994
Corona East619951993
Fence Lake520191991
Cooley Lake420241968

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.