BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in New Mexico has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in New Mexico is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 2.7–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in New Mexico is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 2.7–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.62.56.8
20274.72.56.8
20284.72.66.9
20294.82.66.9
20304.82.77.0

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Capitan Mtn.4620171993
Red Rock2320251992
Gallinas2120251993
Gallo Arroyo1920211996
Cooley Lake1320251968
Sedan1320251994
Rosebud1220252000
Pinon1220241992
La Plata 21120162015
Hobbs1020251994
Cerro Verde1020251984
Cebolla920231973
Torreon920251975
Claunch920001977
Queen920211993
Ojo Sarco820251969
San Antonio819771974
Lakewood820211980
Mountainair720241992
Correo619821976
Variadero620221994
Corona East619951993
Dulce620252001
Fence Lake520191991
Floyd420231975

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.