BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Alabama has surged: up 475% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+475%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Alabama: up 475% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.2 (95% range 4.8–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.8–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.2 (95% range 4.8–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.84.47.2
20265.94.57.3
20276.04.67.4
20286.14.77.5
20296.24.87.6

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wedowee2920231996
South2320241966
Elkmont1820241990
Kymulga1820242000
Brundidge1720211967
Madrid1720231994
Courtland1720231998
Swaim1520241966
Stevenson1520241999
Vernon1520221996
Jena1420241984
Rock Chapel1320241995
Vina1320231996
Lanett1220241966
Sprague1120241966
Brantley1120241967
St Florian1020241975
Brooksville1020231984
Maytown920231967
Latham920001966
Epes920241980
Choccolocco920241984
Helicon920241996
Eufaula920241996
Drummond920242001

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.