BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in New Jersey has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in New Jersey: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in New Jersey is projected to rise about 88% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 4.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+88%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in New Jersey is projected to rise about 88% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 4.2–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.13.810
20277.23.911
20287.34.011
20297.44.111
20307.54.211

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greenwich3020241966
Pedricktown 22620252013
Clarksville2119911969
Six Points1720241980
Croton1420021970
Toms River1220241974
Roosevelt1220221986
Villas1119811979
Albion920221966
Woodbury Hgt820251968
Hope819931970
Del Haven819911991
High Point720251981
Cranbury720251987
Pedricktown720121991
Friendship620251977
Deepwater519771976
Cape May Ch520131992
Croton 2520252009
Ramseysburg520251995
Keyport420221990
Pomona420251989
Spraguetown419991999
Ancora319771966
Sandbrook320241973

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.