BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in New Jersey has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+119%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in New Jersey: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.7 (95% range 4.4–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.7 (95% range 4.4–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.24.011
20267.44.111
20277.54.211
20287.64.311
20297.74.411

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greenwich3020241966
Pedricktown 22520242013
Clarksville2119911969
Six Points1720241980
Bennett Mill 21620242016
Croton1420021970
Toms River1220241974
Roosevelt1220221986
Villas1119811979
Ramseysburg1120241995
Croton 21020242009
Albion920221966
Pomona920241989
Hope819931970
Cranbury820241987
Del Haven819911991
Pedricktown720121991
Woodbury Hgt620241968
Friendship620241977
Deepwater519771976
Cape May Ch520131992
High Point420241981
Keyport420221990
Spraguetown419991999
Ancora319771966

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.