BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Vermont has surged: up 492% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+492%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Vermont: up 492% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Vermont is projected to rise about 120% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.21–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+120%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.98Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Vermont is projected to rise about 120% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.21–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.910.141.7
20260.930.161.7
20270.940.171.7
20280.960.191.7
20290.980.211.7

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grand Isle620231995
East Haven520222022
Hinesburg519941978
Bristol420172000
St Johnsbury320231999
Marlboro220242014
North Pownal220072003
Gaysville220211986
S Wallingfrd220222010
W Rutland220241979
Hardwick220242015
Stowe220132013
Stratton120221990
Landgrove119851985
S Reading120191984
Post Mills120161980
Shaftsbury120231988
Northfld Fls120132001
Middlesex120231995
East Calais120042001
Greensboro120242024
Fletcher120241994
Colchester120141996
Newbury 2120212021

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.