BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Utah has surged: up 422% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+422%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Utah: up 421% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Utah is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.46–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Utah is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.46–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.392.1
20261.30.412.1
20271.30.422.1
20281.30.442.1
20291.30.462.2

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Promontory3720241969
Grantsville2220232001
M Warner Res1920241994
Navajo Lake1020231989
Hanna920241997
Goshen820181979
Fairfield720171987
Oak City520241980
Bonanza520101998
Randolph520231992
Jericho Junction520172004
Neponset Res520072003
Bear River420232013
Shivwitz420241992
Boulder320211969
Gold Hill319871987
Notom320241989
Glen Canyon320222021
Blanding320241987
Leamington320152014
Gooseberry320231994
La Sal 2320032003
Kamas320242000
Ferron320192004
Newcastle320221999

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.