BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Utah

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Utah has surged: up 417% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+417%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Utah: up 417% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.49–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.49–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.422.1
20271.30.442.1
20281.30.462.1
20291.30.472.2
20301.30.492.2

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Promontory3220251969
Hanna920241997
Alton 2820252021
Fairfield720171987
Boulder620251969
Oak City520241980
Bonanza520101998
Randolph520231992
M Warner Res520251994
Kamas520252000
Jericho Junction520172004
Neponset Res520072003
Bear River420232013
Shivwitz420241992
Lynn320251999
Ant Flat-Ogden Can320251996
Gold Hill319871987
Notom320241989
Glen Canyon320222021
Blanding320241987
Leamington320152014
Gooseberry320231994
Moab320251986
La Sal 2320032003
Goose Creek Mtn.320251998

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.