BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Oregon has surged: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+84%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Oregon: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Oregon is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.99–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.99–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Oregon is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.99–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.60.934.4
20262.70.954.4
20272.70.964.4
20282.70.984.4
20292.70.994.4

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish Lake8720241973
Winberry4120231968
Elkton2320241972
Modoc Point 22120242024
Umpqua1720241968
Mount Vernon1720242016
Hazel Camp1620221975
Glasgow1420241986
Green1420241994
Emigrant Lake 21320242002
Warner Vally1320231995
Adair1220241973
Scappoose1220231995
Sisters1020132007
Bridgeport820221988
Modoc Point820181972
Waldport820011992
Salem820241993
Molalla820241994
Emigrant Lk720011972
Picture Flat720231993
Blizzard Gap620241984
Blitzen 2620241995
Newbridge619981998
Derby519931968

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.