BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Oregon

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Oregon has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+87%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Oregon: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.7 (95% range 1.0–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.7 (95% range 1.0–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.70.984.4
20272.71.004.4
20282.71.04.4
20292.71.04.4
20302.71.04.4

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish Lake6420251973
Winberry4120231968
Umpqua3520251968
Modoc Point 22020252024
Elkton1920251972
Wedderburn1720251970
Mount Vernon1720242016
Hazel Camp1620221975
Glasgow1520251986
Warner Vally1320231995
Salado1120251968
Trout Creek1120251998
Salem1020251993
Sisters1020132006
Scio920251971
Bridgeport820221988
Modoc Point820181972
Adair820251973
Waldport820011992
Emigrant Lk720011972
Blizzard Gap620241984
Mcminnville620251994
Molalla620251994
Derby519931968
Mt Hood520251986

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.