BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Ohio

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Ohio has surged: up 733% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+733%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Ohio: up 733% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 8.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.6–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 8.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026107.913
2027118.113
2028118.313
2029118.413
2030118.614

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kunkle7120251997
Stonecreek4820251996
Pittsfield4520241992
Fulton4420251972
Lockport2420251966
Dresden2420251966
Napoleon2120251966
Cuba2120241993
Botkins1520191992
Baxter Ridge1520251998
Omega1520241966
Hebron1520251966
Vickery1520251997
Coshocton1519911990
Marion1320231967
Casstown1320252000
Peru1219781967
Ash Ridge1220211992
Kings Creek1020151993
No Kenton1020251967
Westerville1019851966
Birmingham1020241988
Lucerne920241992
Lattasburg920251966
New Marshfld920251966

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.