BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Ohio has surged: up 739% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+739%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Ohio: up 739% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Ohio is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.3–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Ohio is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025107.613
2026107.813
2027108.013
2028118.213
2029118.313

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stonecreek7020241996
Kunkle4520241997
Pittsfield4520241992
No Kenton4220241967
Lockport2920241966
Napoleon2920241966
Valley City2920241998
Fulton2820241972
Hiram2420211993
Vickery2320241997
Cuba2120241993
Dresden1620241966
Botkins1520191992
Omega1520241966
Coshocton1519911990
Smithfield1420241970
Marion1320231967
Enon1320241984
Peru1219781967
Ash Ridge1220211992
Bloomville1120241992
Kenton1120241967
Kings Creek1020151993
Westerville1019851966
Birmingham1020241988

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.