BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Kansas

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Kansas has surged: up 823% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+823%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Kansas: up 823% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.5 (95% range 7.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 9.5 (95% range 7.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.86.411
20279.06.611
20289.16.712
20299.36.912
20309.57.012

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lapland5420221980
Kanopolis3420251967
Olsburg3420252000
Ellinor3020251968
Coats2920251967
Solomon2520251994
Trading Post2120252000
Seneca2020221967
Bucyrus1920252022
Buckeye1620231972
Le Loup1420212000
Lincolnville1420242002
Rock Creek 21320252022
Humboldt1220221976
Hopewell1220132000
Jamestown1120212000
Hays1020141994
Rock Creek1020211968
Olathe920211974
Dover920221974
Hollenberg920251969
Gove920221984
Susank920222000
Lakin820212006
Wreford820241968

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.