BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Kansas has surged: up 817% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+817%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Kansas: up 817% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Kansas is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 6.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.8–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Kansas is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 6.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.66.211
20268.86.311
20278.96.511
20289.16.712
20299.36.812

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lapland5420221980
Covert4720241969
Kanopolis4420241967
Trading Post4020242000
Coats3420241967
Barclay2820241969
Rock Creek 22320242022
Reece2220242000
Seneca2020221967
Buckeye1620231972
Le Loup1420212000
Lincolnville1420242002
Humboldt1220221976
Dalton1220241970
Hopewell1220132000
Jamestown1120212000
Hays1020141994
Rock Creek1020211968
Severance1020242000
Olathe920211974
Dover920221974
Gove920221984
Susank920222000
Lakin820212006
Wreford820241968

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.