BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Colorado

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Colorado has surged: up 434% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+434%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Colorado: up 434% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Colorado is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.59–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Colorado is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.59–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.950.541.4
20270.960.551.4
20280.980.561.4
20290.990.581.4
20301.00.591.4

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walsenburg2220251995
Cokedale1620251995
Elbert1220252000
Timpas920131995
Piedra820251992
Delta720121973
Flagler720252018
Yellowjacket Pass720252001
Mesaverde Np720251996
De Beque620251992
Animas 2620252005
Buford520241973
Deadman Rd.520252007
Como520231996
Rifle Falls520251998
Dolores419871969
Wildhorse L420251992
Trinchera420211992
Villegreen420241993
Buffalo Park420222005
Comanche Pk420231995
Julesburg420192008
Baxter Pass420241994
Heeney 2420252025
Pinneo320102010

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.