BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Pennsylvania has surged: up 348% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+348%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Pennsylvania: up 348% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.5 (95% range 3.5–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.5 (95% range 3.5–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.23.25.1
20274.23.35.2
20284.33.45.3
20294.43.45.3
20304.53.55.4

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Virginia5220241977
N Pine Grove2420251970
Bald Eagle2220251977
Roulette2120171988
Ramsey1920251974
Berwick1920251985
Peru Mills1820251966
Arnot1720251974
Harmonsburg1420251968
Starlight 21420252015
Schaefferstown 21420252002
Bendersville1320241990
N Washington1220251982
Rasselas1220221999
Scheafferstn1220011968
Drehersville 21220252000
Middletown1120251979
Ryde1020051968
Stoneybreak1020251994
Wakena920231989
Jefferson920251966
Doylesburg920232009
Brick Tavern920241990
Parkwood820251975
Wyalusing820251988

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.