BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Pennsylvania has surged: up 337% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+337%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Pennsylvania: up 337% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.4–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 3.4–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.13.15.1
20264.23.25.1
20274.23.35.2
20284.33.35.3
20294.43.45.3

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Virginia5220241977
Arnot3520241974
N Pine Grove3120241970
Middletown2320241979
Roulette2120171988
Mount Joy2120241988
Wyalusing2120241988
Bendersville1320241990
Rasselas1220221999
St College1220241970
Mifflintown1220241966
Scheafferstn1220011968
New Ringgold1220231976
Brunnerville 21220242010
Margaret1120241989
Waller1020241984
Ryde1020051968
Rosecrans920241970
Wakena920231989
Doylesburg920232009
Brick Tavern920241990
Jacobus920241986
Ferris Crnrs820241986
Logue820221970
Bald Eagle820241977

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.