BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in North Carolina has surged: up 772% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+772%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in North Carolina: up 772% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in North Carolina is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 7.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.3–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in North Carolina is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 7.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026107.612
2027107.713
2028107.913
2029118.113
2030118.313

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lloyd Xroads4920241990
California 24620252014
Jamesville4320251984
Dortches3720251990
Ernul3220092001
Myrtle Grove3120251987
Wards Corner3120241966
California3120131972
Supply3020251992
Hertford3020241997
Montague2820251990
Jarvisburg 22620222000
Cayton2520242010
Oteen2220241976
Cullowhee1820251977
Maple Hill1820231995
Belgrade1820192010
Durham1720251990
Youngsville1620251967
Merrimon1520231979
Congleton1520252001
Oakboro1420251969
Eden1320241987
Chowan River1320062002
Madison1119851966

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.