BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in North Carolina has surged: up 905% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+905%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in North Carolina: up 905% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in North Carolina is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 9.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in North Carolina is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 9.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202510.07.612
2026107.813
2027108.013
2028118.213
2029118.413

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Speed5720241966
Lloyd Xroads4920241990
Dortches3820241990
Ernul3220092001
Wards Corner3120241966
California3120131972
Hertford3020241997
California 22920242014
Oakboro2720241969
Jarvisburg 22620222000
Cayton2520242010
Supply2320241992
Oteen2220241976
Jordan2020241967
Maple Hill1820231995
Belgrade1820192010
Merrimon1520231979
Montague1520241990
Cullowhee1420241977
Durham1420241990
Bullock1420241997
Broad Creek1420241993
Climax1320241977
Eden1320241987
Genoa1320241990

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.