BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Nevada

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Nevada has surged: up 532% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+532%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Nevada: up 532% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Nevada is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.3–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Nevada is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.3–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.23.7
20272.51.23.8
20282.51.33.8
20292.61.33.9
20302.61.33.9

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ruby Valley 24620242004
Nixon4020251973
Willis1220252009
Hiko1120251968
Dobbin Creek820181972
Ruby Valley820011997
Mill City820172013
Calico Spr619741972
Eureka520151971
Piute Mdws420252005
Ranchogrande420231992
Gardnerville420121992
Silver Peak419741972
Vya319741969
Toiyabe Nf320161990
Virgin Creek320171997
Oreana320032003
Gardnerville 2320242014
Sand Pass220241987
Humboldt Nf220182006
Majors Place220251999
Val Of Fire220251985
Austin220182009
Midas119991999
Comins Lake120162016

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.