BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in New York

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in New York has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

17×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in New York: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in New York is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in New York is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.71.02.4
20271.71.02.4
20281.81.12.5
20291.81.12.5
20301.81.12.5

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Romulus3820001975
Dryden2420252001
Warwick 21420131979
Highland1320221997
Westbrookvle1220191966
Ogdensburg1220251979
Centerville1120111986
W Shokan1020181984
Argyle920241988
Philadelphia920251981
Canadice L820251979
East Java820251991
Nashville720181968
Mendon620241982
Warwick519731969
Mt Hope519981975
Oriskany Fls520252005
Macdougall520251972
Rushville520212005
Churchville520251968
Naples520251972
Rhinebeck420251967
Whitney Pt420161990
Phillips Cr420241984
Newcomb420212000

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.