BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in New York has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

17×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in New York: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 1.1–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 1.1–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.942.3
20261.60.972.3
20271.71.02.3
20281.71.02.4
20291.71.12.4

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Romulus3820001975
Warwick 21420131979
Highland1320221997
Westbrookvle1220191966
Centerville1120111986
W Shokan1020181984
Philadelphia1020241981
Argyle920241988
Sheridan820241979
Nashville720181968
Canadice L620241979
Mendon620241982
Warwick519731969
Mt Hope519981975
Corbettsvile520241968
Oriskany Fls520212005
Dryden520242001
Macdougall520241972
Rushville520212005
Austerlitz420242003
Meridale420211976
Whitney Pt420161990
Phillips Cr420241984
Kasoag420242010
Newcomb420212000

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.