BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Idaho

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Idaho has surged: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+127%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Idaho: up 127% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Idaho is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.30–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.85Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Idaho is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.30–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.800.241.4
20270.810.251.4
20280.820.271.4
20290.840.281.4
20300.850.301.4

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magic Mtn2720241987
Almo1120251988
Silver City920251997
Bates820191992
Squirrel720211999
Mivoden520191980
Henry519751973
Picabo520251993
Blacks Creek419751971
Hot Spring420251997
N Fork Cda R320162004
Marble Creek320252011
Burgdorf320101993
Pasadena Val320121997
Centerville220161986
Craters220091996
Triangle220241990
Pierce219931993
Carey220252025
Mud Lake220181999
Dougal Res220251989
Preston220221990
Cabarton220241992
Blackft Res120091986
Naples120241978

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.