BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Massachusetts has surged: up 614% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+614%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Turkey Vulture Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Massachusetts: up 614% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Turkey Vulture Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.82 (95% range 0.07–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.82Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.82 (95% range 0.07–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.770.021.5
20270.780.031.5
20280.800.041.5
20290.810.061.6
20300.820.071.6

Turkey Vulture Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
S Barre3020191991
Warren520091988
Littleton420191988
Mansfield420251995
Cheshire419921984
N. Andover320242018
Maynard220251990
Cummington220131972
Sheffield220131971
Wellfleet 2220252021
E Dennis120052005
Marion120232013
Ware River120191995
Prattville120062003
Newburyport120112011
N Oxford120042004
Belchertown120221979
N Orange120251989
Chesterfield120251976
Pittsfield119971997
Monterey120212019
Gay Head120222011
Holden120241990
Warren 2120252011
Cummington 2120252015

Turkey Vulture Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.