BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 209% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+209%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 209% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Turkey Vulture In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 131% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 3.0–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+131%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 131% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 3.0–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.52.76.3
20274.62.76.4
20284.62.86.4
20294.72.96.5
20304.83.06.6

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bates WellARIZONA512023
Ajo 2ARIZONA282022
Organ PipeARIZONA282023
Hope 2ARIZONA282019
Cutter 2ARIZONA242018
Casa GrandeARIZONA182022
WikieupARIZONA162024
AjoARIZONA152008
LukevilleARIZONA151981
BlytheCALIFORNIA152003
Cibola LakeARIZONA142024
Alamo Res.ARIZONA132025
Cabeza PrietARIZONA132025
Parker DamCALIFORNIA92007
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA92013
WickenburgARIZONA82023
VicksburgARIZONA71989
Red Rock 2ARIZONA72024
PisinimoARIZONA61993
HopeARIZONA62009
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA62025
RivieraARIZONA52025
CottonwoodCALIFORNIA52019
DatelandARIZONA42025
Iron MtnsCALIFORNIA42021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.