BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 301% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+301%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 301% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Turkey Vulture In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.2–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+93%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.2–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.62.96.3
20264.73.06.4
20274.73.06.4
20284.83.16.5
20294.93.26.6

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bates WellARIZONA512023
Ajo 2ARIZONA282022
Organ PipeARIZONA282023
Hope 2ARIZONA282019
Cutter 2ARIZONA242018
Cabeza PrietARIZONA222024
Casa GrandeARIZONA182022
WikieupARIZONA162024
AjoARIZONA152008
LukevilleARIZONA151981
BlytheCALIFORNIA152003
QuartzsiteARIZONA142023
Cibola LakeARIZONA142024
Lone PineCALIFORNIA112023
Parker DamCALIFORNIA92007
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA92013
WickenburgARIZONA82023
VicksburgARIZONA71989
Red Rock 2ARIZONA72024
PisinimoARIZONA61993
HopeARIZONA62009
Alamo Res.ARIZONA52024
CottonwoodCALIFORNIA52019
DatelandARIZONA42021
RivieraARIZONA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.