BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 301% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+301%Since 1970
73Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Turkey Vulture has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 301% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 3.2–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+93%Change by 2029
4.9Projected 2029 index
3.2–6.695% range
±31.5%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.62.96.3
20264.73.06.4
20274.73.06.4
20284.83.16.5
20294.93.26.6

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Bates WellARIZONA512023
Ajo 2ARIZONA282022
Organ PipeARIZONA282023
Hope 2ARIZONA282019
Cutter 2ARIZONA242018
Cabeza PrietARIZONA222024
Casa GrandeARIZONA182022
WikieupARIZONA162024
AjoARIZONA152008
LukevilleARIZONA151981
BlytheCALIFORNIA152003
QuartzsiteARIZONA142023
Cibola LakeARIZONA142024
Lone PineCALIFORNIA112023
Parker DamCALIFORNIA92007
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA92013
WickenburgARIZONA82023
VicksburgARIZONA71989
Red Rock 2ARIZONA72024
PisinimoARIZONA61993
HopeARIZONA62009
Alamo Res.ARIZONA52024
CottonwoodCALIFORNIA52019
DatelandARIZONA42021
RivieraARIZONA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.