BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 9.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 8.2–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.2–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 9.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 8.2–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025148.121
2026148.121
2027148.221
2028148.221
2029148.221

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LongfellowTEXAS772024
OzonaTEXAS582022
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO462017
ValentineTEXAS431987
Ft. DavisTEXAS352023
ComstockTEXAS312023
Dove Mtn.TEXAS302006
ShafterTEXAS271985
Devils R CynTEXAS252024
Ft. StocktonTEXAS182024
Bear MtnTEXAS162024
LangtryTEXAS162000
CastolonTEXAS152024
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO142024
PumpvilleTEXAS142024
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS132009
PinonNEW-MEXICO122024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO112024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO112022
ToyahvaleTEXAS112024
Sierra BlancTEXAS112024
AltudaTEXAS102022
PresidioTEXAS102023
QueenNEW-MEXICO92021
MarathonTEXAS92023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.