BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-45%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 65% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 7.6–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.6–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 65% by 2030 — from 8.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 7.6–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026147.620
2027147.620
2028147.620
2029147.620
2030147.620

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OzonaTEXAS582022
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO462017
ComstockTEXAS442025
ValentineTEXAS431987
Ft. StocktonTEXAS382025
Devils R CynTEXAS372025
Dove Mtn.TEXAS302006
ShafterTEXAS271985
MarathonTEXAS242025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO232025
LongfellowTEXAS212025
LangtryTEXAS162000
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS132009
PumpvilleTEXAS132025
PinonNEW-MEXICO122024
PresidioTEXAS122025
Casa PiedraTEXAS112025
Coyanda DrawTEXAS112025
AltudaTEXAS102022
QueenNEW-MEXICO92021
Black GapTEXAS92025
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO81977
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO82021
Delaware CrkTEXAS82015
CornudasTEXAS82018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.