BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 787% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+787%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 787% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Turkey Vulture In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.0 (95% range 3.0–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.0 (95% range 3.0–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.72.74.7
20273.82.84.7
20283.82.94.8
20293.92.94.9
20304.03.04.9

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PittsfieldOHIO452024
RomulusNEW-YORK382000
BristolVERMONT302025
HebronOHIO152025
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA142025
HighlandNEW-YORK132022
OgdensburgNEW-YORK122025
PeruOHIO121978
W ShokanNEW-YORK102018
ArgyleNEW-YORK92024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK92025
LucerneOHIO92024
LattasburgOHIO92025
Canadice LNEW-YORK82025
NashvilleNEW-YORK72018
MendonNEW-YORK62024
HiramOHIO62025
Valley CityOHIO62025
Grand IsleVERMONT62023
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK52025
MacdougallNEW-YORK52025
RushvilleNEW-YORK52021
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK52025
NaplesNEW-YORK52025
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.