BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 768% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+768%Since 1968
82Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Turkey Vulture has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 768% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.9 (95% range 2.9–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029
3.9Projected 2029 index
2.9–4.995% range
±17.3%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.62.74.6
20263.72.74.7
20273.82.84.7
20283.82.94.8
20293.92.94.9

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
PittsfieldOHIO452024
RomulusNEW-YORK382000
Valley CityOHIO292024
HiramOHIO242021
HighlandNEW-YORK132022
PeruOHIO121978
W ShokanNEW-YORK102018
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK102024
ArgyleNEW-YORK92024
LucerneOHIO92024
SheridanNEW-YORK82024
HebronOHIO82024
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA82024
NashvilleNEW-YORK72018
Canadice LNEW-YORK62024
MendonNEW-YORK62024
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA62024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA62023
Grand IsleVERMONT62023
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK52021
MacdougallNEW-YORK52024
RushvilleNEW-YORK52021
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA52023
HinesburgVERMONT51994
AusterlitzNEW-YORK42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.