BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Northern Rockies has surged: up 273% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+273%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
149Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Northern Rockies: up 273% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Turkey Vulture In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.35–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.35–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.550.310.79
20270.560.320.80
20280.570.330.81
20290.580.340.82
20300.590.350.83

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mount VernonOREGON172024
MeeteetseWYOMING172023
BridgeportOREGON82022
Willow Creek 2MONTANA72025
St RegisMONTANA62023
MivodenIDAHO52019
MadrasOREGON52024
RandolphUTAH52023
Neponset ResUTAH52007
FloraOREGON42018
CusickWASHINGTON42024
WilsonWYOMING42025
Marble CreekIDAHO32025
BurgdorfIDAHO32010
N Fork Cda RIDAHO32016
Hebgen LakeMONTANA32025
Elevation MtMONTANA32022
LogdellOREGON32023
PathfinderWYOMING32022
Carter 2WYOMING32023
MaybellCOLORADO22025
Browns ParkCOLORADO22025
LayCOLORADO22024
CentervilleIDAHO22016
CabartonIDAHO22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.