BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Northern Rockies has surged: up 341% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+341%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Northern Rockies: up 341% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Turkey Vulture In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.60 (95% range 0.36–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.60 (95% range 0.36–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.560.320.80
20260.570.330.81
20270.580.340.82
20280.590.350.83
20290.600.360.84

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mount VernonOREGON172024
MeeteetseWYOMING172023
BridgeportOREGON82022
MidvaleWYOMING82024
MaybellCOLORADO72024
FeathervilleIDAHO62023
St RegisMONTANA62023
NewbridgeOREGON61998
MivodenIDAHO52019
CoolinIDAHO52024
MadrasOREGON52024
RandolphUTAH52023
Neponset ResUTAH52007
FloraOREGON42018
CusickWASHINGTON42024
BurgdorfIDAHO32010
N Fork Cda RIDAHO32016
Elevation MtMONTANA32022
LogdellOREGON32023
Summit PrOREGON32024
LovellWYOMING32024
PathfinderWYOMING32022
Carter 2WYOMING32023
LayCOLORADO22024
CentervilleIDAHO22016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.