BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Oaks and Prairies has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+45%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 18 (95% range 14–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 18 (95% range 14–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171322
2027181322
2028181322
2029181322
2030181422

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HeyburnOKLAHOMA582025
Massey LakeTEXAS472025
Arenosa CrkTEXAS452025
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA432025
SeldenTEXAS422025
Whit Mtn.TEXAS422019
HenriettaTEXAS412022
DuranTEXAS361999
CayugaTEXAS342025
Thornton 2TEXAS322010
DallasTEXAS312025
Glen RoseTEXAS292025
LydiaTEXAS292025
BeggsOKLAHOMA262023
Three RiversTEXAS252025
BrucevilleTEXAS252025
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA242025
BonnerTEXAS242025
CottonwoodTEXAS222025
PaigeTEXAS212025
ComancheTEXAS212025
CarlosTEXAS202025
CleburneTEXAS202025
BurtonTEXAS192025
RhomeTEXAS182025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.