BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Oaks and Prairies has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+36%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 13–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 13–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025171322
2026171322
2027171322
2028181322
2029181322

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whit Mtn.TEXAS422019
HenriettaTEXAS412022
HeyburnOKLAHOMA402024
SadlerTEXAS392024
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA372009
DuranTEXAS361999
SeldenTEXAS342024
Thornton 2TEXAS322010
Glen RoseTEXAS312024
MuldoonTEXAS282024
Massey LakeTEXAS282024
BeggsOKLAHOMA262023
DuncanOKLAHOMA262024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA242018
GrafordTEXAS242019
Mount ZionTEXAS242024
TatumsOKLAHOMA222024
BonnerTEXAS192024
PaigeTEXAS192024
OsageTEXAS182024
CayugaTEXAS182024
Oak GroveTEXAS171999
DecaturTEXAS172024
CampbelltonTEXAS162024
Oak Grove 2TEXAS162024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.