BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

18×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Turkey Vulture has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Turkey Vulture In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.74 (95% range 0.44–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.44–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.74 (95% range 0.44–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.680.380.98
20260.690.390.99
20270.710.411.0
20280.720.421.0
20290.740.441.0

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
East TroyMAINE112005
MilanNEW-HAMPSHIRE102024
Wilson MillsMAINE52024
CornvilleMAINE52024
East HavenVERMONT52022
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS41992
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE42022
KasoagNEW-YORK42024
NewcombNEW-YORK42021
Horseshoe L.NEW-YORK42016
HartfordMAINE32024
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS32019
PetersburgNEW-YORK32010
WarrensburgNEW-YORK32018
St JohnsburyVERMONT32023
FreedomMAINE22006
HarmonyMAINE22024
CooperMAINE22010
Seboomook LkMAINE22013
Horse MtnMAINE22003
Lake MoxieMAINE22019
AndoverMAINE22017
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS22013
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS22013
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.