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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

15×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 0.62 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.46–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 0.62 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.46–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.680.400.97
20270.700.410.99
20280.710.431.0
20290.730.441.0
20300.740.461.0

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
East TroyMAINE112005
FletcherVERMONT102025
East HavenVERMONT52022
EastbrookMAINE42025
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS41992
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE42022
NewcombNEW-YORK42021
Horseshoe L.NEW-YORK42016
HartfordMAINE32024
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE32025
MilanNEW-HAMPSHIRE32025
PetersburgNEW-YORK32010
HighmarketNEW-YORK32025
WarrensburgNEW-YORK32018
St JohnsburyVERMONT32023
ReedsMAINE22025
FreedomMAINE22006
HarmonyMAINE22024
CooperMAINE22010
Seboomook LkMAINE22013
Horse MtnMAINE22003
Lake MoxieMAINE22019
AndoverMAINE22017
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS22013
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS22013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.