BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Turkey Vulture In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasBirds of prey

Turkey Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+38%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.2 (95% range 5.0–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–9.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.2 (95% range 5.0–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.04.89.2
20277.04.89.2
20287.14.99.3
20297.14.99.3
20307.25.09.3

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA552021
PhillipsOKLAHOMA302025
CanadianOKLAHOMA202017
HavanaARKANSAS172021
StarkARKANSAS162025
De RidderLOUISIANA162019
ManyLOUISIANA161992
Burr FerryLOUISIANA162025
Liberty HillTEXAS162025
Derry 2LOUISIANA152025
Smyrna 2TEXAS152025
DerryLOUISIANA141982
TroutLOUISIANA142025
Alexander StTEXAS142025
ClayLOUISIANA132025
Big CedarOKLAHOMA122019
MatoyOKLAHOMA122025
NatchitochesLOUISIANA111991
NatchezLOUISIANA112025
HargisLOUISIANA112011
BlancoOKLAHOMA112016
PocolaOKLAHOMA112016
SandbluffOKLAHOMA102025
CaledoniaTEXAS102025
IvanLOUISIANA92013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.