BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+33%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 4.9–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–9.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 4.9–9.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.04.89.2
20267.04.89.2
20277.14.99.3
20287.14.99.3
20297.14.99.3

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA552021
CanadianOKLAHOMA202017
Ivan 2LOUISIANA182016
HavanaARKANSAS172021
De RidderLOUISIANA162019
ManyLOUISIANA161992
Fishville 2LOUISIANA162024
IndianolaOKLAHOMA162024
Mt. SelmanTEXAS152024
DerryLOUISIANA141982
New WaverlyTEXAS132024
FredTEXAS132024
LongstreetLOUISIANA122024
Big CedarOKLAHOMA122019
NatchitochesLOUISIANA111991
HargisLOUISIANA112011
BlancoOKLAHOMA112016
PhillipsOKLAHOMA112008
PocolaOKLAHOMA112016
ClayLOUISIANA102024
Burr FerryLOUISIANA102024
WomackLOUISIANA92024
IvanLOUISIANA92013
GoodwillLOUISIANA92024
Big Sandy BithTEXAS82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.