BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Turkey Vulture In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Turkey Vulture in Sierra Nevada has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-19%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Turkey Vulture in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Turkey Vulture In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.12–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Turkey Vulture in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.12–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.940.091.8
20260.950.101.8
20270.950.101.8
20280.960.111.8
20290.970.121.8

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Turkey Vulture in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA92014
Silver CityCALIFORNIA62013
WawonaCALIFORNIA62024
PaxtonCALIFORNIA52024
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA52012
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA42008
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA42014
Forest Hill 2CALIFORNIA42005
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA32019
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA32024
WestvilleCALIFORNIA22024
LumberyardCALIFORNIA22024
SattleyCALIFORNIA22024
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA22023
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA22023
ChilcootCALIFORNIA22023
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA11974
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12024
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA11970
DardanelleCALIFORNIA12013
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA12022
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA12007
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA12014
GeneseeCALIFORNIA12023
DownievilleCALIFORNIA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.